Venezuela, oil, and Net Zero – where do we draw the line?

Venezuela sits on some of the largest proven oil reserves in the world. For decades, that oil has underpinned jobs, public services, export revenues, and the wider economy. For millions of Venezuelans, oil is not an abstract climate debate discussed in conferences or policy papers; it has been directly tied to livelihoods, stability, and survival.

Any serious discussion about Net Zero must start by recognising that reality.
Calling for a low-carbon future cannot mean abandoning people or dismissing the economic hardship faced by countries whose development has been shaped by fossil fuels.

But empathy alone is not enough.
Net Zero also requires us to confront limits.

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Net Zero means not all oil can be burned

If Net Zero is to be more than a slogan, then a simple truth follows: not all known fossil fuel reserves can be extracted. This isn’t ideology – it’s arithmetic. Every credible climate pathway shows that a significant share of existing coal, oil, and gas must remain unburned if global temperature targets are to be met.

That raises an uncomfortable question in the case of Venezuela:
if we already know that much of the world’s oil cannot be used, why are we still fighting over who gets to extract it?

Every new dollar invested in expanding oil production pushes the transition further into the future. It locks capital, skills, infrastructure, and political attention into a system that the world says it wants to move away from. The longer that continues, the more abrupt, disruptive, and unjust the eventual transition will be.

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Oil extraction is a choice, not an inevitability

Continued investment in Venezuelan oil extraction is often framed as unavoidable – the only realistic path to recovery. But in reality, it is a choice. A choice to double down on a declining global industry rather than begin the harder work of economic diversification.

Setting the extreme politics of Venezuela aside, there is a broader question the world must face:
is it actually better – for Venezuela or for the climate – if this oil is extracted at all?

Some countries, such as Norway, used fossil fuel exports to build national wealth and strong institutions. But that model emerged in a different era, before climate limits were clear and before Net Zero commitments existed. Replicating it today would mean knowingly passing severe climate consequences to future generations.

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A different kind of development

There is an alternative, though it is undeniably more difficult.

A credible post-oil pathway would involve redirecting investment away from extraction and toward:

• Renewable energy and grid infrastructure

• Agriculture, food systems, and land-based industries

• Manufacturing, processing, and local value creation

• Education, skills, and enterprise not tied to volatile oil prices

• International transition finance, debt restructuring, and long-term development funding

This approach does not promise quick wealth. It does not deliver the same short-term cash flows as oil exports. And in Venezuela’s case, it is further complicated by corruption, institutional weakness, and the influence of the drugs trade.

But it offers something oil no longer can: economic resilience in a Net Zero world.

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Empathy, limits, and responsibility

This debate is not about denying Venezuela the right to develop.
It is about being honest about what kind of development is viable in a carbon-constrained future.

Net Zero requires empathy for people living with real economic hardship. But it also requires limits – and the courage to say that some resources must remain untouched, even when extracting them would be easier in the short term.

In that sense, Venezuela’s dilemma is not unique. It mirrors the choice facing all of us.

Do we continue living largely as we do today, reliant on fossil fuels, and leave the consequences to future generations? Or do we accept higher costs, tougher decisions, and slower growth now to reduce the damage we pass on?

Net Zero is not just a technical challenge.
It is a moral one.

And if we are serious about it, then at some point – in Venezuela and everywhere else – the oil really does have to stay in the ground.

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